E: Here we are, finishing up our second pandemic Oscar season. Our second full year of barely making it to theaters, except to see Spider-Man, which isn’t going to be nominated. Our second year of spare awards ceremonies, of masked faces, of schmoozeless Oscar campaigns. I’ve rarely felt so far away from a slate of nominees: the studios’ answer to the box office riddle of pandemic times is no longer to stream everything, but to put movies in theaters no ones visits, and ask for full payment for everything online up front. I don’t get the impression it’s working well; I think most audiences are just finding other content. Even Oscar obsessed me; I want a future with movie theaters, but I’m not ready for it yet, and I’m also not ready to buy movies I haven’t seen, even if buying one costs less than seeing it in the theater with my husband would have. It’s silly, maybe, but it’s too much of a paradigm shift. I’d call it a failed gamble, myself.
That said, let’s talk about the movies we haven’t seen and maybe won’t be able to see!
Best Supporting Actor
Consensus Candidates: These are the folks that everyone expects to see on Oscar’s shortlist. These are your guys whose omission would lead Snubbed lists, should they not get invitations to the big dance. This happens to somebody every year in a couple of categories, of course, but who will it be this time?
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Katsur, CODA
Likely Contenders: As always, there are so many acclaimed male supporting performances that the precursor awards leave us a bounty to choose from. Here are the folks with two major nods.
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
With One Major Nomination a Piece:
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Mike Faist, West Side Story
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Stranger Things Have Happened:
Jessie Plemmons, The Power of the Dog
Just in case you’re wondering, awards season leading up to Oscar is filled with dozens of smaller, less prestigious awards, starting with city critic groups and the rather shadowy National Board of Review, through the glitzier critics group like the Broadcast Critics (Critics Choice) and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (Golden Globes), moving on to the guilds for each area of expertise (most notably the Directors, Writers, Producers and Screen Actors Guilds, the latter known as the SAG awards), finally culminating in the BAFTAs, or British Academy Awards, which now have a wildly different nominating process, but also foresee shifting trends, like Anthony Hopkins and Frances McDormand winning the leading categories last year. All of those groups now have nominations out, and give us a picture of where the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) might be heading with Oscar.
The only group to give out their awards so far has been the HFP, and the Golden Globe for supporting actor went to the wide eyed, willowy young man most other critics groups singled out – Australian Kodi Smit-McPhee as the awkward aspiring doctor viciously mocked by his new step uncle and the other men on his stepdad’s remote ranch. At 26 Smit-McPhee’s young, but not too young to win a supporting statuette (they like to make men wait for a lead one), and even at that tender age he’s an industry vet, having started work at 10 and graduated to a major literary adaptation (post-apocalyptic drama The Road) at 13. He’s consorted with primates in Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, helmed a new horror classic in Let Me In, and even played an X-Man. He’s as certain as it gets.
This would be the first Oscar nomination for veteran British actor Ciaran Hinds, and as a devotee of his work since his turn as the swoony Captain Wentworth in 1997’s Persuasion, I’m absolutely delighted to see him getting long overdue accolades. You may know him as Aberforth Dumbledore in Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, or Wildling leader Mance Rayder in Game of Thrones, just to name a few. After being recognized by all four major precursor awards (BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globes and SAG), he looks to pick up his first Oscar nod as the charming old grandpa in Kenneth Branagh’s semi-autobiographical family story Belfast.
Troy Kotsur hasn’t been nominated for an Oscar either, and like Smit-McPhee and Hinds, he’s an industry veteran, but on a much more subtle scale. He developed a type of sign language for The Mandalorian characters to use, for example. He’s drawn acclaim since CODA won the Sundance Film Festival Audience Award for his fierce, loving fisherman, and is the first deaf actor nominated for a SAG award. After being nominated for all four major precursors, he seems like a lock.
Ben Affleck has done a lot in his four decades in Hollywood. (Yep, that’s right – his first acting credit is from 1981.) Since his career took off with 1997’s Good Will Hunting, he’s sold a lot of tabloids (marrying movie start Jennifer Garner, being engaged to Jennifer Lopez twice, doing various stints in rehab) but he’s also achieved a great deal more than being a largely reviled Batman or punchline Gigli; he’s won Oscars for writing and producing, he directed Argo to a Best Picture win, and he’s made some pretty darn good movies. What he hasn’t done – unlike bestie childhood Matt Damon and younger brother Casey – is be nominated for his acting. That may all change tomorrow.
Like Kotsur’s, Affleck’s tiny movie was filmed in Cape Ann, Massachusetts; that’s my beach, and my grungy old downtown serving as the background for his cool and wacky uncle to impress the main character in this nostalgic semi-memoir. The Tender Bar hasn’t drawn as much attention as CODA, but Affleck is its standout. He’s picked up both a Golden Globe and a SAG nod, which puts him in decent stead for that first big acting Oscar nod.
So here’s the big question. How much does AMPAS like The Power of the Dog (alternatively titled Toxic Masculinity: The Western)? Because BAFTA – which failed to nominate almost anyone who’s under consideration in Hollywood – likes Jesse Plemmons, the polite, more genteel ranch owner George just trying to keep the peace between his new wife and his possessive brother, reaching out for happiness but trying to keep a lid on so many simmering tensions. Plemmons, like Smit-McPhee and like his wife Kirsten Dunst, is one of the rare actors to make a successful transition from child star to working adult – without ever being the glamorous matinee idol his wife was. Instead his path from The Mighty through She’s All That, from Daredevil to Fargo has been solid and respectable. It would be his first nomination.
Maybe I’ve been burned too many times of late by ignoring the BAFTAs, but I think they’re right in saying the man has a shot. If the Academy likes his movie as much as their British counterparts do (and the two groups do have a large overlap) then his less bombastic work could follow the coattails of his flashier costars. I think so in part because Being the Ricardos – which could bring love to Oscar winner J.K. Simmons as the acerbic but insightful lush William Frawley playing Lucy Ricardo’s neighbor Fred – doesn’t seem to have found the traction I might have liked, and also because the work that won Simmons his Oscar in Whiplash was so harrowing and transcendent, I’m not sure this variation of his usual schtick can compare to the memory.
Or, who knows, maybe they’ll love Belfast, which fared so well on the film festival circuit, and double up on nominees from there, bringing in Critics Choice nominee Jamie Dornan. Granted, he’s young and exceptionally handsome, which definitely counts against him with AMPAS, but he shines as Branagh’s idealistic father. (Why, why is this movie not available for me to see somewhere? I’d risk a theater for this, now that Omicron is finally mellowing out. It looks amazing.) I can ask the same question about BAFTA nominee Mike Faist, who plays Riff in West Side Story (another movie Omicron made it too difficult for me to see in theaters, which also isn’t streaming), SAG nominees Bradley Cooper as yet another memorable 1970s eccentric in Licorice Pizza, and an entirely unrecognizable Jared Leto in House of Gucci – how much do you like those movie, AMPAS voters? That’s the real question here, and we’ll be able to answer it when the nominations come out; it might even give us a new Best Picture frontrunner. Again, only Cooper and Leto have acting nods in this crew – Cooper 4 as part of his total of 8, and Leto just the 1 – only that one resulted in a win.
I’m asking it again; why can’t I see those movies anywhere? I really want to, damn it.
My Guess: Affleck, Hinds, Katsur, Plemmons, Smit-McPhee
Spoiler: Cooper, Leto
Best Supporting Actress
Consensus Candidates:
Ariana Debose, West Side Story
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Likely Contenders:
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
You Can’t Count Out:
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Jesse Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ann Dowd, Mass
Marlee Matlin, CODA
Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Stranger Things Have Happened:
Nina Anandas, Being the Ricardos
Alia Shawcat, Being the Ricardos
Why Haven’t We Heard About:
Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
All the shortlists give us Balfe (Branagh’s lovely, worried mother) and Debose (Anita in West Side Story, the role that won Rita Moreno her Oscar). Neither has been nominated for an Oscar before. Balfe’s famous, of course, as the lead in tv’s romantic time travel saga Outlander rather than any film work, while the magnetic, epically talented DeBose – who has to be considered the frontrunner after winning this year’s Golden Globe – is even newer to the movie awards scene. If you know her at all, it’s from Apple +’s comic musical Schmigadoon, or from Broadway’s original Hamilton cast, where she was a featured ensemble member. They should receive their first nods tomorrow morning.
The best bets to join them are slightly less assured. SAG swapped Nightmare Alley‘s glamorous femme fatale Cate Blanchett for King Richard‘s determined mom Aunjanue Ellis, the Critics Choice passed up Passing‘s Ruth Negga for Rita Moreno, double dipping in West Side Story, and BAFTA passed up Kirsten Dunst for The Lost Daughter‘s Jesse Buckley (who essentially splits the lead character with Olivia Colman) and Mass‘s grieving mother Ann Dowd. Otherwise Dunst, Ellis and Negga have three of the four majors each, and a very solid shot at a nomination. If I’ve picked the five nominees correctly, they’ll only have 1 previous nomination between them all – Ruth Negga’s, for Loving. Gerund titles seem to do well for her!
As with the men, the real story will be how much AMPAS likes each movie, since this year the possible candidates haven’t gotten the chance to wine and dine and schmooze with Oscar voters. I’m inclined to write off Jesse Buckley’s nomination because BAFTA just likes her a lot (this is her third nod in 4 years, with no Oscar nods yet), and Moreno because her role is too small (and possibly too nostalgia-dependent) in a movie truly hurt by pandemic box office politics. Matlin, who became the only deaf Oscar winner before SAG gave awards, shines in a rare role that allows her to sign with other deaf actors, and Dowd punches above her celebrity level, but not her talent, entering this conversation for a tiny movie which would have benefited from a streaming platform’s reach. I could see either of them spoiling, but it will be a spoiler – there’s not a lot of basis to predict it on. If there’s real affection for Being the Ricardos, we’ll see it with a nod for Nina Anandas, playing Vivian Vance (playing neighbor Ethel) with heartbreakingly smothered ambition – but if there is, it will be localized in AMPAS, and not the Hollywood community as a whole, since she hasn’t been nominated anywhere else.
My guess: Balfe, DeBose, Dunst, Ellis, Negga
Spoilers: Dowd, Matalin
Best Actor
Consensus Candidates:
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Likely Contenders:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick, BOOM!
You Can’t Count Out:
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Mahershala Ali, Swan Song
Stranger Things Have Happened:
Anthony Ramos, In the Heights
As is usual with lead actress (and sometimes lead actor), we have six top contenders for five slots. Who’ll make it through? Now there’s the question.
Cumberbatch, Garfield, Smith and Washington have all be nominated for the Critics Choice, the Golden Globes and SAG. All four are well respected and have been nominated before – although Garfield (nominated previously in supporting for The Social Network) is a mite younger than AMPAS likes their leading men, and could be vulnerable. Washington, on the other hand, is the most nominated actor of his generation with 8 nods in acting so far (and another as a producer) and wins in both the supporting and lead categories. Joyous multi-hyphenate (and two time nominee) Will Smith is your frontrunner as the driven father of champions Venus and Serena Williams, while brooding, brainy and brawny Benedict Cumberbatch (shockingly nominated only once) helms the best picture frontrunner, mesmerizing as a smart, mean cowboy with a puzzling past and a flair for performative cruelty.
Does AMPAS like the frantic energy of musical tick, tick, BOOM!, soundstage drama Being the Ricardos, or the Coen’s extreme artifice in black and white (but colorblind cast) Macbeth? Stage-y stage adaptations like Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami fared poorly last year, with attention given to more naturalistic pieces like Nomadland and Minari – but The Father was a stage adaptation, too. Macbeth and Ricardos are less likely to garner Best Picture nods, and the Best Actor contenders usually match with that field. That could count against those contenders. Three time nominee Bardem has been nominated with less frequency (both this season and in general) than Washington, but AMPAS certainly likes him. His ebullient Desi Arnaz still a good bet, but is it the best?
Which category does classic love story Cyrano fall into, acceptable adaptation or not? I’ve yet to see it, but the trailer feels more like a classic costume drama, and as such more forgivably stage-y; the movie hasn’t been widely seen, but Peter Dinklage has paid his dues and does lots of interesting work. Casting him in this movie – instead of just putting a big prosthetic nose on a handsome actor – grounds his Cyrano de Bergerac in a way we’ve never seen. Dinklage’s closest brush with Oscar previously was for 2003’s The Station Agent. How much longer can an actor of his calibre go without a nomination? He strikes me as the sort of actor who’s just missing the right role, and when he gets it he won’t just be nominated, he’ll win. Costume dramas seem out of fashion these days, though, and I’m afraid this isn’t his year.
Of course, AMPAS also really likes BAFTA nominee Mahershala Ali, to the tune of two Oscars to Bardem’s one. He wouldn’t be as exciting or unusual a choice as Dinklage; unless you count four foot nine inch Linda Hunt, and it doesn’t sound like you should, no little person has ever been nominated for an Oscar. There’s a lot of press in breaking down a barrier, although I’m not sure that motivates most Academy voters. Anyway, Swan Song has been on Apple + for a long time, and I can’t help thinking if it was going to take off, like CODA, it would have already.
And then there’s Leonardo DiCaprio, who’s definitely an enjoyable part of Don’t Look Up‘s massively talented ensemble. He’s been 6 nominated times as an actor, he’s won once, they like him, and he picked up one of the ten Golden Globe slots as well as a BAFTA. Maybe they’ll pick both Bardem and DiCaprio, and it’s the young buck Garfield (despite his previous nomination) that they’re not ready to let over to the big boy’s table. If I trust the numbers, I should keep Garfield. He also ticks the box for auteur no one appreciates, a favorite Oscar type, and like Bardem and Smith gets points for playing a real person. But remember what I said about Oscar going its own way, the way someone you thought was a lock always ends up getting passed over? Maybe this year it’s (the utterly delightful) Andrew Garfield in the trash can.
Yeah, I just talked myself into a new position on this one. Here’s me hoping I’m wrong.
My Guess: Bardem, Cumberbatch, DiCaprio, Smith, Washington
Spoilers: Garfield
Dark Horses: Ali, Dinklage
Best Actress
Consensus Candidates:
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Likely Contenders:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
You Can’t Count Out:
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Alaina Haim, Licorice Pizza
Stranger Things Have Happened:
Emilia Jones, CODA
Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
Tessa Thompson, Passing
Last year, we had no idea who was going to win best actress. This year, it’s the field of possible nominees that’s unusually flexible. This problem thrills me; usually Oscar struggles to find enough lead roles to field a slate of five nominees. This year, the field puts previous nominees and winners into contention against a group who has yet to be acknowledged. It’ll be fascinating to see if we have a 2004 on our hands, where more establishment candidates like Nicole Kidman were left off the list in favor of fresh new faces.
That said, your surprise frontrunner is actually Nicole Kidman for thinking her way through making I Love Lucy, giving us Lucille Ball’s deeply cerebral creative process amid a veritable flotilla of personal and professional dramas. It’s a really interesting, unusual sort of performance, and definitely not what I thought it was going to be. She’s a safe bet to pick up nomination number five, and maybe win number 2.
Lady Gaga seems likely to pick up her second career nod for playing the villainously ambitious Patricia Gucci; in addition to receiving nominations from the Hollywood Foreign Press, the Broadcast Critics, and SAG, she’s the only previous nominee to score a BAFTA nod.
Kristin Stewart is yet another child actor made good, though with rather infamous bumps along the way. If you had asked me or any other Oscar watcher back in early December, we’d have told you she was a lock for the prize itself for perfectly embodying the people’s princess – and then she didn’t win the Golden Globe, and then she didn’t get nominated by SAG or BAFTA. By all accounts she gives an astonishing performance in a movie no one likes; perhaps dislike of the film, combined with lukewarm feelings towards the actress, has overcome the general love for Princess Diana.
Zegler, the rising star who plays Maria in West Side Story, and is already set to play the lead in the upcoming Disney live action Snow White, won the National Board of Review’s Best Actress prize, the first of the season. She also picked up the Golden Globe Best Actress in a musical or comedy, an award which doesn’t have consistent influence on Oscar nominations but can’t be outright dismissed. Newcomer Alana Haim was one of ten nominees at the Golden Globes and six at the Critics Choice. Will AMPAS like her enough to make a top five, over so many established stars? BAFTA did, over Hudson, Stewart, Kidman, Chastain and even their perpetual favorite Olivia Colman. Even given the oddness of the new BAFTA jury system (which allows a small body to pick most of the nominees, rather than relying on the traditional membership vote) she’s a very real threat.
Newcomer Emilia Jones – the title character of CODA (a Child of Deaf Adults) – managed to score a BAFTA nod after hovering around the edge of the conversation all Oscar season, as did with a more established actress otherwise without Oscar buzz, Tessa Thompson of Passing. Thor’s Valkyrie Thompson has received mild buzz in past years (Dear White People, Creed) but will likely still be waiting for her turn after this year’s announcement, too.
Parallel Mother‘s Penelope Cruz is beloved enough to have three nominations and one win (Vicky Christina Barcelona), and AMPAS adores her frequent collaborator Pedro Almodovar, so she’s not a clear fit for my “previous nominees vs newcomers” binary. She’s unlikely to push through this crowded field, but she can’t be counted out. Oscar winner Jennifer Lawrence, too, is just as unlikely to add a fifth nomination to her life time total, but if there’s overwhelming love for Don’t Look Up (and AMPAS can surprise that way sometimes) it could boost her in. Even Frances McDormand could sneak in if The Tragedy of Macbeth turns out to be Oscars very favorite, but is it remotely likely? Nope.
In all, I think this is going to be a very, very interesting category to watch. This time I’m going conservative, with the SAG slate of previous nominees. We’ll see if that was the way to go.
My Guess: Chastain, Colman, Gaga, Hudson, Kidman
Spoiler: Stewart
Dark Horses: Haim, Zegler
Best Director
Consensus Candidates:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Critic’s Favorite/Left Field Choices:
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Stranger Things Have Happened:
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Lin Manuel-Miranda, tick, tick, BOOM!
Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos
I’m going to tell you straight out: I don’t care that the Globes and the DGA have a consensus on who the top candidates are in direction. The Director’s Branch of the Academy spits in the eye of consensus. Where there is consensus, the Director’s Branch laughs. I have to remind myself that these are not people I know, because it’s quite easy to judge what comes across as a sort of pretentious, hypocritical coolness; give them a slate of folks the industry has decided are clearly the top, and they’ve got to dig under the surface for something more obscure, for someone new (but not so new as to be, say, a Black woman). I don’t think there’s any way that the five directors everyone else has chosen will make it into these too-cool-for-school’s It List. As The Princess Bride‘s Vizini would put it, I can clearly not pick the five directors in front of me.
But just as trying to determine which goblet contained the iocane powder, trying to anticipate the Director’s branch’s capriciousness brings madness. Definitely one and possibly two will fall off. Both Spielberg and Branagh tread new ground for them, but they’re establishment enough to feel vulnerable. Notoriously unfilmable epic Dune is a director’s movie, so that may depend on how much the Directors liked it, but I generally feel like they’ll respect the effort? Campion (who takes about a decade to make each of her finely crafted films) is our frontrunner for now, and her movie is a visual and acting triumph, so … she stays? I think? Anderson is kooky and they like him; he’s not so successful as be threatening, like Spielberg (or even Lin-Manuel Miranda). Hamaguchi, though? He fits into the pattern of Thomas Vinteberg and Bong Joon Ho.
My Guess: Anderson, Branagh, Campion, Hamaguchi, Villeneuve
The Safe Choice: Spielberg, McKay
Spoilers: Gyllenhaal
Dark Horses: literally anyone
Best Picture
Consensus Candidates:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Likely Contenders:
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
tick, tick, BOOM!
West Side Story
Don’t Count Out:
Being the Ricardos
The French Dispatch
House of Gucci
The Lost Daughter
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Stranger Things Have Happened:
Cyrano
Drive My Car
Encanto
This year’s a little different than recent past years, in that (due to a rules change) we know we’re going to have ten nominees. It’s probably – maybe – a little easier to predict when you know what you’re aiming for.
Ten nominees is a lot to manage, though. If you break it down, only a single movie appears on the BAFTA shortlist, the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice, the Producer’s Guild, the SAG and the AFI Top Ten, and it’s probably not the one you’d expect: I give you (drum roll please) gonzo end times comedy Don’t Look Up. We can safely start our list there.
That’s right, SAG dissed frontrunner The Power of the Dog for its ensemble prize after nominating four actors for individual awards, a peculiar omission. Did they think that was reward enough? AFI left off Belfast, CODA makes every list but BAFTA’s, and sci fi spectacular Dune is (predictably) only missing a SAG ensemble. We can still reasonably put those four on the list.
The next five slots are a bit harder to pin down, but not much. There are ten nominees on the Producers Guild and Golden Globes lists, as well as (obviously) the American Film Institute’s Top Ten. Comparing those brings us to traditional biopic King Richard, wacky memoir Licorice Pizza, musical about making a musical/the life of an unappreciated genius tick, tick, Boom! and that classic of stage and screen, West Side Story.
So what to pick for that tenth slot? All the short lists differ by a film or two, and various films have made up the difference; Cyrano at the Golden Globes where they (like me) love Joe Wright, love stories and costume dramas, star-studded House of Gucci at SAG, Macbeth sneaking in at AFI. It’s Nightmare Alley – the glamorous, star heavy thriller about a carnival medium from Oscar’s favorite weirdo Guillermo Del Toro – that gets that slot from both the Critics Choice and AFI, however, and its broad appeal through cinematography, music, production design, hair, make up and costumes might put it over the edge.
Being the Ricardos started the Producer’s Guild list, and can’t be counted out; Oscar moves a movie about Hollywood, and Hollywood has a love/hate relationship with Aaron Sorkin, so the movie’s in the conversation, but far from a sure thing. What’s more classic than Shakespeare’s Macbeth? Well, maybe the hyper stylized way it was shot, which is either going to thrill or annoy voters. (I landed on the annoyed side, for the record, which may be causing me to underestimate it.) Also treading the line between love and annoyance is Wes Anderson; his French Dispatch hasn’t made any shortlists, so it’s very unlikely to surprise, but that’s what would make it surprising. The murderous House of Gucci was expected to score with both audiences and critics: it may be down the pandemic (and its theaters only release) that it didn’t make more of a splash. The Lost Daughter found its audience with critics on Netflix, but hasn’t galvanized the larger imagination. Is it the name, as with Glenn Close’s astonishing The Wife? Growl.
Even though almost no one in America has seen Drive My Car, it’s been topping a few critics lists, so it can’t be entirely discarded out, especially given the recent track record of foreign (especially Asian) films with Oscar. After all, this has been mostly a story of the numbers, an attempt to see patterns and consensus in a chaotic landscape. In the end, the Academy has a small set of voters, and the heart wants what it wants. What does Oscar’s heart long for? What do enough voters feel passionate enough about to put on top of their weighted ballots? We’ll find out tomorrow.
My Guess: Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, tick, tick, Boom!, West Side Story
Spoilers: Being the Ricardos, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Dark Horses: Drive My Car, The French Dispatch
Other Categories
I’m looking forward to a few other potential nods. Will “Dos Orugitas” give Lin Manuel-Miranda his shot at finally completing that EGOT? If it does, I’ve read it will become the first solely Spanish language song so nominated. Will Flee be nominated in both the feature documentary and animation categories? (Likely other nominees in animated feature include the most buzzed about movie of the moment, Encanto, as well as Luca and The Mitchells vs. the Machines; I’m hoping for Raya and the Last Dragon to make it in, myself.) Will Cruella (a favorite for costumes and hair) receive more nominations than 2021’s only box office hit, Spider Man – No Way Home? Will streamers like CODA, Don’t Look Up, Dune and The Power of the Dog receive more nominations than the movies Hollywood asked viewers to pay for individually like Belfast and West Side Story? I think we all know the answer to that last one.
Relatively Entertaining 