E: What you need to know: the Academy is small. The Academy is finnicky. The Academy is fickle. Sometimes, when we look at what’s come before – the awards given by heaps of critics groups (arranged by state, city, and cause) and then by the big four precursors, we can figure out what they’re going to do. Every year, I like to try.
I’m getting a bit cynical about the various glass ceilings, and the futility of rooting for my favorites, but still, I have thoughts, and I hope they’re meaningful to you.
Best Supporting Actor:
Your Frontrunner for the Win:
Robert Downey, Jr, Oppenheimer
So far two precursor awards have had their ceremonies, announcing their winners: the Golden Globes (given by a new group of journals who are not the old Hollywood Foreign Press) and the Critics Choice (given by broadcast journalists). Downey Jr. has won the supporting actor prize at both. He’s also been nominated by all the other major award giving bodies – the BAFTAs (British Academy), the Screen Actor’s Guild – that nominate actors. He’s almost unrecognizable as Oppenheimer‘s affable-seeming bureaucrat. When the actor’s wing of the Academy gets together to nominate fellow actors, this comeback kid who has fought back through addiction to achieve even greater stardom will top the list. After first being nominated thirty one years ago for his role in Chaplin, Downey will add a third nomination to his lifetime total on Tuesday, on his way to always and forever being known as an Oscar winner.
Equally High Profile:
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Let me clarify: what I mean by this category title is that these two men have been awarded the same amount of times and are each as likely to be nominated as the other is. Of course there’s always shocking exclusions, but having secured nominations from the four major groups mentioned above, these gentlemen are reasonable bets to get nods on Tuesday, bringing their totals to 9 and 3, respectively. Though DeNiro is obviously the bigger Oscar favorite, having been nominated at least once in 5 of the last 6 decades, and stars in the more typical Oscar bait/serious film, Barbie’s boyfriend Ken is a huge cultural icon and has certainly been having a moment. Expect to see both names tomorrow.
Pick Two (At Least):
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Willem DaFoe, Poor Things
Charles Melton, May December
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
So here’s a bit of a mess. Brown was nominated by SAG and by the Critics Choice. Dafoe picked up nods at SAG and the Golden Globes. Charles Melton and Mark Ruffalo scored nominations at the Globes and Critics Choice but were ignored by SAG. BAFTA nominated none of them, choosing to go with a totally different slate. So what are we supposed to do with that?
First, we need to acknowledge that most of these groups – BAFTA, Critics Choice and (unusually for them) the Golden Globes – have six nominees instead of Oscars’ five, obviously making it harder to know which contender will be left out.
Then, wow, we need to talk about the British Academy of Film and Telesion Arts (BAFTA). People like to think that SAG augers best for Oscar, since the largest voting wing in the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) is the actor’s wing. SAG, however, is massive – nearly 200,000 members – while AMPAS is much, much smaller at about 9,000, only about 1300 of whom are actors. The body with the most crossovers is actually BAFTA. The British Academy, like the Golden Globes, has been struggling to face up to their historical blindness about artists of color, and has been switching up their nominating process for the last two years in an effort to combat this. This has lead to some very uneven results, however. Last year, all of their nominees came from a select committee, with the general membership unable to vote. Though both Academies like to think their work is about awarding the best art, period, it does matter if they pick movies people have heard of, since the actual point is to drive up box office numbers. This year, three of six BAFTA nominations come from general BAFTA members, and the other three from a selection committee; you’ll see as we continue discussing that we got three pretty typical choices from BAFTA this year, and then three less conventional ones. So who knows who got the fourth, fifth and sixth most votes at BAFTA, and what that might have said about the race. Interestingly, all six of BAFTA’s choices in this category were white men, unlike many of those left off.
So. The two white men on this list have been nominated for Oscars before – four times for Dafoe and three for Ruffalo. I have yet to see their film (I’m not a Lathimos fan and am really not looking forward to it) but I find it fascinating that they’re not being nominated together (something we often see, which indicates broad support for the film); other than the Globes groups seem to like one performance, but not the other. I’ll be fascinated to see which one of them shows up on Oscar’s list. It absolutely seems like Hollywood likes the movie, so I’d bet on one of them getting in.
Sterling K. Brown might not have been nominated for an Oscar yet, but his resume is lousy with awards love for his television work. Is this the role that takes him to big dance? Charles Melton picked up lots of early critics groups awards as the May in May December, but he hasn’t been as widely appreciated in this role as many in the awards-watching communities expected. So for me, the question is going to be this; which movie did AMPAS like best? BAFTA almost completely ignored both May December and American Fiction; they’ve never really gotten movies about the American Black experience, so the latter isn’t particularly shocking. It does suggest to me that their new protocols aren’t making it any easier for people of color to get nominations, if that was the aim of their revamp.
Long Shots:
Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
If BAFTA still matters – which it might – these two might have a shot. The Holdovers seems like a film the Academy is going to love, and Mescal has gotten a surprise nomination before, so one of them making the list is the kind of thing that’s going to look shocking if you’re not paying very close attention. I don’t actually think either of them will make the list, but I won’t rule it out. Of course Sessa is really a co-lead, but he’s too young for anyone to acknowledge that. Mescal is pretty young, too, not to mention good looking (a plus only if you identify as female) but that’s easier to swallow in a supporting category.
My Guess:
- Downey Jr. 2. DeNiro 3. Gosling 4. Melton 5. Ruffalo
Alternate: 1. Dafoe 2. Brown
I don’t feel sure about this one at all, I’ll admit it.
Best Supporting Actress:
Your Frontrunner for the Win:
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
True confessions: I saw Randolph’s performance as a cook and grieving mother, and I enjoyed it, but I’m not sure why she’s running away with this awards season. That’s very often the way of it, though. This will be Randolph’s first nomination; she’s likely to be most familiar to audiences from her work as Detective Jackson in Only Murders in the Building, although she can also be seen (and heard) as Mahalia Jackson in Rustin.
Her Bridesmaids:
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Nominated for each of the four major precursors, these two ladies seem poised to pick up their first nominations as well. Emily Blunt has been flirting with Oscar since breaking her leg in the Devil Wears Prada, and the summer behemoth Oppenheimer should finally be the vehicle that’ll take her there as the lead character’s tortured wife. Much less of a household name, you may know Danielle Brooks from Orange is the New Black, or as the delightfully ebullient host of Netflix’s Instant Dream Home, or for blowing the audience away in a bravura performance on the Tony telecast before losing featured actress in a musical to Rene Elise Goldsberry (Angelica in Hamilton). She’s back with the same role in the film version of the musical version of The Color Purple; the movie’s general prospects are uncertain, but not hers.
Next in Line:
Jodi Foster, Nyad
Two time Oscar winner Jodi Foster, queen of the late 80s and early 90s, knocks out her best performance in ages as Diana Nyad’s grounded best friend and coach in the delightful movie Nyad. She doesn’t act often anymore, but if there’s a lot of sentiment for Jodi left from those days (and I think there is) it will boost her profile enough to hold on to this slot amidst fierce competition. She made every shortlist but the problematic BAFTA, and should triumph again.
Pick One (at Least):
Julianne Moore, May December
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Each of these women have two major precursor nods. Will one of them get through, or will it be both, knocking out someone who seems more of a lock? Saltburn, it must be said, is a provocative movie that divides audiences. (Some of my fourteen year old daughter’s friends just watched it and were utterly horrified.) Pike has been nominated once before for Oscar, though she’s received much more love from the Golden Globes and BAFTA throughout her career. The big question is, does Oscar like the movie?
The question holds for May December. We know they love Julianne Moore, to the tune of five lifetime nominations and one win. Honestly, that number should be higher – she has so many brilliant performances (I’m still devastated she didn’t get a nod for An Ideal Husband), and her role here as an infamous Mary Kay Letourneau-like wife/predator is no exception. The film doesn’t seem to be having the awards season many predicted for it, but perhaps that will all change Tuesday morning.
They’ve Been Nominated Once By Major Groups:
Penelope Cruz, Ferrari
America Ferrara, Barbie
Clarie Foy, All of Us Strangers
Sandra Huller, The Zone of Interest
The category that’s the most locked in for a win also seems to be the one with most variety in the people who’re going to lose it. Why is it that the woman who gave us the most impactful words of the year – America Ferrara – is likely to be overlooked? It’s a certainty that her speech about the difficulty of being a woman is going to be played during the ceremony, but I’m afraid it’ll be during a montage, and not the clip played after her name when announcing the nominees.
Television star Foy seems to clearly be a BAFTA committee pick and would be shocking inclusion here; she has no buzz otherwise. Buzzy Sandra Huller is having a moment; she may not be nominated at all, but if Oscar voters like her as much as BAFTA does she might end up with another double set of nods. Unlikely, yes. Impossible, no. I’m a bit baffled by Penelope Cruz’s SAG nomination: Ferrari hasn’t really taken off as an awards movie, or in box office or buzz or any other metric, and she hasn’t appeared anywhere else. I don’t see her inclusion as very likely, even though she’s won one Oscar out of four nominations.
My Guess:
- Randolph 2. Blunt 3. Brooks 4. Foster 5. Moore
Alternative: Pike, Ferrara, Huller
If I had a vote:
America Ferrara and Oppenheimer‘s Florence Pugh
Best Actor:
Your Frontrunners for the Win:
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
It was the Critics Choice that turns this one into a race between two unrewarded veterans, and we have ample opportunity to see if it stays that way. Giamatti, so beautifully real as a sharp tongued curmudgeon hiding in his teaching job, might get the Oscar love. Or maybe it will go to the man carrying the prestige flick of the year as tortured scientist Robert Oppenheimer, another Hollywood fixture for twenty years at least. Only Giamatti’s been nominated before, which seems to be a bonus this time. It’s clear how AMPAS prefers its leading men – middle aged, having paid lots of dues, and ideally past your good looks if you ever had them – and these two tick most of those boxes.
We’ll find out more about how these two Golden Globe winners stack up at SAG and BAFTA, but for now, assume you’ll hear their names tomorrow morning.
Equally Likely (Pick Three of These Four):
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Cooper and Domingo have been nominated everywhere – BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globes, SAG – just like Giamatti and Murphy. They both play real men – loud, flamboyantly gay historical figures, in fact – which AMPAS appreciates. They both have an excellent shot. Domingo has has acted in buzzy Oscar flicks before (If Beale Street Could Talk, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Selma, The Butler, Lincoln, even this year’s The Color Purple) but has yet to be nominated, while multi-hyphenate Cooper has 9 nods already, four as an actor, four as a producer and one for screenwriting. He could pick up as many as four more this year. Both are likely to make this slot.
Between DiCaprio and Wright, it’s a harder choice. Neither made the BAFTA shortlist, though in Wright’s case it generally seems like the Brits don’t get his very American movie, as it was passed over for almost every other category as well. BAFTA liked Killers well enough to nominate it for Best Picture, so DiCaprio can’t say the same. SAG fell hard for American Fiction and for Wright. I’m guessing that’s the big indicator that DiCaprio’s nomination for this year will be as the producer of Killers, not as its star.
Spoiler:
Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
In a surprise show of support for the film, Keoghan was nominated for last year’s The Banshees of Inisherin. Lots of folks are intrigued by the boundary transgressing Saltburn, and might want to reward it and Keoghan himself, with his talent for oddball characters that stick under your skin. He’s awfully young for this honor, though, and AMPAS shies away from that in lead.
My Guesses:
- Giamatti 2. Murphy 3. Domingo 4. Cooper 5. Wright
Alternate:
DiCaprio
Best Actress:
Your Frontrunners for the Win:
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Emma Stone, Poor Things
So, wow, this is a weird one. I absolutely believe that these two women are locks, but we do need to talk about their chances of taking home the win, partly because it gets to the trickiness of predicting the nominations themselves. Killer‘s Lily Gladstone took the early lead as the winner of the Golden Globes Lead Actress in a Drama, beginning her speech in the Blackfoot language, making headlines as the first Native American woman to win a Golden Globe, praising the allies who got the film made and worked so hard to tell a difficult American story. Poor Thing‘s Emma Stone surprised a little, beating Margot Robbie in the Golden Globes Comedy/Musical female lead; the movie (in which she plays a reanimated Victorian with an infant brain who glories in sex, violence, and academia) is artsy, but controversial. Drama normally has an edge for Oscar, and as we saw with Michelle Yeoh’s win, representation matters a lot, especially in the Lead categories where advances have been slow and small. Like Cate Blanchett, Emma Stone already has an Oscar, and that matters too when it comes to winners. Gladstone’s Achilles heel may be this: is her role truly a lead, or really a large supporting one? Folks have won before on shorter roles (Frances McDormand in Fargo, for example), so it’s still an open question.
Anyway. Gladstone wins the Globe and the Critics Choice, and looks like a lock – but then we got the BAFTA nominees, and guess who isn’t even on that list? Lily Gladstone. Now, I don’t think for a moment this means that AMPAS won’t nominate Gladstone. They certainly aren’t going to pick Vivian Oparah, a BAFTA nominee who was clearly a committee pick. The real question is, how likely is Gladstone to win if she wasn’t a top three pick for a nomination? And if the BAFTA voters are lukewarm about her, then will AMPAS be so different?
Equally Likely:
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Mulligan and Robbie have been honored by all four major precursors, and they ought to be locks here. English rose Mulligan knocks it out of the park as a Chilean-American actress in Netflix’s Maestro. Buzzy (if only because of castmate Bradley Cooper’s prosthetic nose) and easily accessible on streaming, every voter should have seen this movie, and you can’t see it without being impressed by the always charmingly but now also sharp edged and fiery Mulligan. As the symbol of the movie that brought people back to theaters after the anemic pandemic years, Robbie should be receiving all the love and accolades the industry has to give. Sadly Golden Globe host Jo Koy made it plain: even after more than a billion dollars at the box office, even after being far and away the most successful movie of the year, Barbie gets derided and undervalued every time. It might as well be a super hero flick, they’ve minimized it so completely. They can be a jealous, fickle crew, AMPAS. This is a crowded category: if Robbie gets pushed out (or Gerwig or the film itself), viewers have a big reason not to watch the telecast.
Sorry for that momentary slip into darkness. Robbie and Mullligan should both advance.
Pick One:
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Annette Bening, Nyad
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Natalie Portman, May December
Ugh, this is so brutal. Here are the numbers from the big precursors: Huller gets three of the four important nods (only missing the SAG), Barrino, Bening and Lee two, and Portman one. As you can see, the usual suspects are a much bigger group than normal, I’m sure in part due to the increasing prevalence of the six nominee slate.
I’ve included Portman here because I like to be thorough and also because Oscar voters just might like the heightened, melodramatic tone of May December; that certainly worked for former winner Portman in Black Swan. On the other hand, they might not love it enough to nominate all three main cast members – even Black Swan got fewer nominations than expected (sorry, Mila Kunis), and voters seem to like May December‘s distinctive director Todd Haynes without their affections rising to the level of love. I think it’s more likely that one of the other four women will take the last slot (although there’s always scenario where more of these women knock the four universally nominated ladies off their presumed perches, giving more of them a shot). Lee comes from the true indie of the bunch, a small movie about a married woman reconnecting with her childhood sweetheart. Unexpectedly starring in an inspirational sports movie, Bening is a force as a swimmer focused on a unique achievement – and learning to rely on a team to help her get there. American Idol winner Fantasia Barrino landed the role of a lifetime in the musical version of The Color Purple, which has been gaining in word of mouth and audience love. AMPAS doesn’t often love musicals, and they may feel awarding Brooks a slot is quite enough, thank you very much. German Sandra Huller has blown critics away as the suspect in her husband’s murder; the BAFTAs love her so much they nominated her twice.
Long Shot:
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin
Last year, several high profile Black actresses famously got pushed off the shortlist and at least one was replace a lesser known white woman whose famous AMPAS supporters campaigned heavily to boost her (widely acknowledged to be excellent). Some high profile supporters have been trying the Andrea Riseborough technique with Ellis-Taylor, boosting a Black actress instead. It’s frankly astounding how few people need to be influenced in order to make this work, but it’s still a much bigger task this year because the overall number of plausible candidates with beloved performances is larger and includes other women of color. What if a vote for Ellis-Taylor means no nod for Barrino, Gladstone, or Lee? AMPAS voters might be worried about unintended consequences from a reverse Riseborough.
My Guess:
- Stone 2. Gladstone 3. Mulligan 4. Robbie 5. Huller
Alternate:
- Bening 2. Lee
I don’t know. I have a really strong feeling about Huller and her film, but that leaves it a very white slate. Maybe the only all white slate of the acting nominees. I could see a lot of voters not being happy with that and tinkering – but to what effect?
Best Director:
Your Frontrunner for the Win:
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Christopher Nolan, the phenom, the former wunderkind multi-hyphenate building original, jaw-dropping stories with intricate timelines and shocking reversals, who burst onto the scene with the amazing and innovative Memento. After almost twenty five years of blowing fans away, Nolan is finally getting his due. Fans like my Academy-hating brother couldn’t be more excited.
Equally Likely:
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Yorgos Lathimos, Poor Things
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Martin Scorsese, The Killers of the Flower Moon
Here’s the five directors that the Director’s Guild chose, all stars helming this year’s top films: Gerwig, Lathimos, Nolan, Payne and Scorsese. They’ve all been nominated as director’s before – once for Gerwig, Lathimos, Nolan and Payne, and a whopping nine times for the iconic Scorsese, who like Cooper has another boatload of nominations for writing and producing. Of course there’s Cooper, making things hard – he was nominated by the Critics Choice, Golden Globes and BAFTA. Payne got left of the Globes list, Gerwig, Lathimos and Scorsese at BAFTA. We’re starting with 6 clear candidates and surely the worst thing is that one of the six won’t get their name on this year’s list. Right?
Wrong.
Oh no, my friends. Meet the Director’s Wing of the Academy. They don’t like to go for the expected. We can be almost certain that they’re not going to just pick five of the six folks everyone else is awarding. It’s more likely we’ll only see three or four of these folks at the big dance.
Are the directors capable, for example, of dropping Gerwig, despite her helming the biggest movie on the planet? Hell yes. Big box office can make them jealous indeed. I hope they won’t forget the weird improbability of a movie about sentient toys being anything remotely worth seeing, let alone the biggest hit of the decade. I hope they remember the miracle of tone Barbie walks so ably and how unlikely it was that such a movie could possibly work – but it’s pink, and based on that infamous toy with big boobies, so I wouldn’t put it past them. Plus it came out over the summer, which makes it easier to forget the good things and start sneering again.
They’re also quite capable of glossing over people they’ve nominated before. Liking someone in general – even a huge icon like Marty S – doesn’t mean they’ll like you today, especially not if a fresher, newer white guy steps up to take your place. (Sorry for the tone, but they really annoy me.)
Because They Like to Be Difficult:
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Andrew Haigh, All of Us Strangers
Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Celine Song, Past Lives
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
The directors generally like to ignore the women among them. They do, however, really like indie movies (the smaller the better) and they really like international films, especially ones like Anatomy of a Fall which is going to run away with Best International Feature. Think of recent directing nominees Ryusuke Hamagachi (Drive My Car), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) and Bong Joon Ho (Parasite). What better way to show they’re not sexist than by including Triet? It might salve their consciences if they vote against Gerwig. Either way I have a strong feeling about Triet.
And then there’s Glazer and The Zone of Interest, about the lovely life of staff families at a concentration camp, or Celine Song (who could be the second woman of color nominated in this category) and her Past Lives, both of which are filmed in multiple languages. Song grabbed a Globe nomination, and Triet a BAFTA; BAFTA’s committee clearly also picked out Haigh and Glazer, while Jefferson hasn’t been picked by any major group, which is often just what the director’s want, but this category tends to be a white dude’s party, so despite his movie being likely to do well, he hasn’t made much of a splash yet and seems less likely to. Who knows? Weirder things have happened.
My Guesses:
- Nolan 2. Payne 3. Lathimos 4. Triet 5. Gerwig
Alternates: 1. Scorsese 2. Cooper
As you can see, most of these folks would be picking up a second directing nomination, with Triet the only newbie. If Gerwig does make the list, she’ll be the second woman after Jane Campion to be nominated twice. As it is she’s one of a mere seven to ever receive this honor.
I should note, Gerwig ought to make this list. She should be right up there at number 2 in probability. But like someone in the cast of every Star Wars movie, I have a bad feeling about this. Maybe it’s just the sour taste Jo Koy left after the Golden Globes. He didn’t read the room then; will the director’s wing read the more metaphorical room now? Especially with older members being notorious for voting early. I can’t quite bring myself to predict her exclusion, but expect a raft of furious op eds if Gerwig does get left off.
Best Picture:
Your Frontrunner for the Win:
Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer looks ready to take the nominations by storm, with broad support across many categories. It should do very well with technical awards, too.
Locks
American Fiction
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
They may ditch Gerwig, but it’s hella unlikely they can ignore Barbie itself, especially since Best Picture is voted on by all the branches of the Academy, and it should have broad support across various disciplines. Along with Killers and Oppenheimer, it should score ten nominations or even more. Even with Fiction missing out on one of BAFTA’s five Best Picture slots, it should have an easy time with the American Academy’s longer list. All four films have gotten nods from the Producers Guild, SAG, Golden Globes and Critics Choice.
Nearly as Certain:
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
Poor Things
This grouping brings us the rest of the BAFTA nominees (Things, Holdovers, and Fall) as well as four more Golden Globe and Producers Guild nominees. Poor Things and The Holdovers have Critics Choice nods as well. Oddly, Poor Things failed to receive a SAG nomination, but it should still move forward.
Which Two of These?
The Color Purple
May December
Past Lives
Saltburn
The Zone of Interest
Here we come down to it. When making up a long list, how do you balance that list? Do Academy members think that way, or do they just list what they like? Do you, for example, decide one movie with Black protagonists checks that box off and makes another unnecessary? Back in the day AMPAS used to balance out genres – there should be an epic, a family drama, an indie movie. That’s definitely not the current fashion. How do voters make up their puzzles now?
If AMPAS actually nominates Past Lives (Globes, Producers Guild, Critics Choice, AFI Top Ten, National Board of Review Top Ten) and The Color Purple (SAG, Critics Choice), that’d bring the total to five nominees with female protagonists. The same for May December (AFi, Globes). That will never do! Unheard of! What do you think this is, the 1940s? Almost for that reason alone, I’d bet against that. SAG might like The Color Purple, but is the Academy really going to go for a movie about singing black women? I mean, come on. They’re singing. And a romantic movie, even if it is an indie? They can reward that in screenplay. Does that mean they’re more like to stick with the Holocaust flick and the gross one with where that dude goes American Pie on a grave?
Long Shot:
All of Us Strangers
This British movie hasn’t played as well (or really at all) on this side of the Atlantic, but it managed to get a decent amount of attention from BAFTA and the Globes.
My Guesses:
- Oppenheimer 2. Barbie 3. The Holdovers 4. Killers of the Flower Moon 5. Poor Things 6. Maestro 7. American Fiction 8. Anatomy of a Fall 9. The Zone of Interest 10. Past Lives
Alternatives: 1. Saltburn 2. The Color Purple
I’m hoping they can hold their noses at 40% female lead films. Can we really hope for as much as half? The numbers clearly indicate Past Lives should make it, but we’ll see.
And, indeed, in 12 hours or so we’ll see. I’ve wrestled with these guesses long enough! Now I just want to know what’s triumphed and who’s been dumped. Bring it on, Oscar!
Relatively Entertaining 