E: Often, SAG’s job as the middle tent pole of the awards race is first to clarify the picture of the Golden Globe nominations, and then to confirm the Golden Globe winners as Oscar favorites. Often, there’ll be a slight question between the comedy and drama Golden Globe winners in a given year; which one is the actual favorite? So SAG can be helpful in showing which way the wind blows there. Sometimes there’s a horse race between several films, and there too the Screen Actor’s Guild can clarify the picture. Tonight, there’s not likely to be that much drama when the show airs on TBS and TNT at 8pm EST. We’re mostly going to get to look at some good-looking people in beautiful clothes and hear a preview of their Oscar speeches.
Though of course surprises are always the most exciting, you can count on Patricia Arquette and J.K. Simmons to take the supporting prizes, and Julianne Moore to finally, finally take best actress. Never-nominated Michael Keaton is likely, though not absolutely assured, to pick up best actor; his competition is Golden Globe drama winner Eddie Redmayne, who has the showier part but doesn’t quite fit the same mold as the other three, veteran actors who finally scored the right role.
The likeliest winner for best ensemble is Boyhood, the Oscar front runner and Golden Globe winner. A win for either The Imitation Game or The Grand Budapest Hotel might confuse the Oscar landscape a bit, especially if either can back up the win at a subsequent awards show like the BAFTA (British Academy Awards) or the Producer’s Guild. Though the latter flick is a perfect ensemble choice for SAG, which often favors more quirk than other award groups, it’s unlikely to be serious enough for the Academy; the former, on the other hand, does blend the right amounts of historical significance and bravura acting to be a real threat, but it doesn’t as of yet have any real momentum.
So, do we know what we think we know? Tonight we’ll find out. Oh, and of course we’ll get to see good television nominees, too, and those wins aren’t quite as clearly predestined.