Golden Globes 2011: Who Will Win?

E: What’s more gilded and glittery than the Golden Globes?  The best thing about this award show is that they don’t take themselves too seriously.  Sure, they’re the best indicator of Oscar’s tastes, and the second oldest awards, but really, they’re the most fun.  It’s a relatively small room, filled with tispy or even drunken celebrities for many different fields.  What’s not to like?    We have hotly contested races for Best Supporting Actress and Best Picture – Drama, so the night ought to be pretty lively.  This is where front runners are confirmed, or dreams are crushed.

Now, I know I write most about tv, but when it comes to award shows, I’m most passionate about movies.  I don’t watch a lot of these award show tv shows (Mad Men, Breaking Bad, Boardwalk Empire, 30 Rock, etc) so it’s harder for me to get excited about the tv stuff.   I like being able to assess all contenders, and that not even really possible with tv.  So I’m mostly not going to get into it, except to say that I want The Good Wife to win every category in which it’s nominated. That’s not too much to hope for, is it?

Without further ado, my thoughts:

Best Picture, Musical or Comedy

Alice in Wonderland
Burlesque
The Kids Are All Right
Red
The Tourist

This really has to be The Kids Are All Right.  This list is basically preposterous.  Who in heaven’s name thinks The Tourist is a comedy, in any other sense than it being amusingly bad?  I know they love Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp – don’t we all?  But this kind pandering benefits no one.  It’s just embarrassing.  The other films aren’t quite as appalling – Alice in Wonderland made a ton of cash, if nothing else – but, Burlesque?  Eh.  Anyway, The Kids Are All Right is smart and funny.  I’m not sure the same can be said of any other movie on this list.

Best Actor, Musical or Comedy

The Nominees:

Johnny Depp, Alice in Wonderland
Johnny Depp, The Tourist
Paul Giamatti, Barney’s Version
Jake Gyllenhaal, Love and Other Drugs
Kevin Spacey, Casino Jack

This race has no relevance to Oscar whatsoever.  Who ever wins, it’s just a nice little resume padding, not a stepping stone to something greater.  Given that, it seems clear they like Johnny Depp, so I’m going to guess Depp in Alice for the win.  If nothing else,it’s the onlymovie on this list that didn’t utterly bomb at the box office.

Best Actress, Musical or Comedy

The Nominees:

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs
Angelina Jolie, The Tourist
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Emma Stone, Easy A

Annette Bening pretty much runs away with this category.  Her real competition for the Oscar is over in Drama (Natalie Portman), so this should be an easy win.  Her biggest competition is her fabulous co-star, Julianne Moore.  Having seen the movie, I can’t quite figure out why Bening is the one with all the buzz.  They’re at least equally terrific.  I doubt that’s going to matter, however. Bening’s primed  for her second comedy win; she won in this category a few years ago only to lose the Oscar – again – to Hilary Swank.

Best Picture, Drama

Nominees:

The Black Swan
Inception
The Fighter
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

I think we’ve an interesting race here mostly between The Social Network and The King’s Speech, although I think it’s just feasible that The Fighter could sneak in between.  The Hollywood Foreign Press has responded better to costume drama than the Oscars, but on the other hand, they’ve responded to edgier fare, too, like Brokeback Mountain.  Will that mean they go for The King’s Speech?  Or will they try to prove themselves more like American critics group and go for the trendier (but overrated) Social Network?  Or will the others split the vote and bring The Fighter to the championship?  Whichever wins gets a huge boost.

I’m going to say The Social Network, but root for The King’s Speech.

Best Actor in a Drama

The Nominees:

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
Mark Wahlburg, The Fighter

Colin Firth.  Colin Firth.  Colin Firth.  If not Colin Firth, Colin Firth, or Colin Firth?  It could possibly go to Franco or even Eisenberg, but no one expects it.  No, this is the award show that will tell us if Colin Firth really is the galloping giant we all believe.

Best Actress, Drama

The Nominees:

Halle Berry, Frankie and Alice
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Ought to be prima ballerina Natalie Portman.  A win for anyone else would be a huge upset and boost to their Oscar chances.  Portman and Bening are set to duke it out for the Oscar, and momentum might be shifting Ms. Portman’s way.

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees:

Christian Bale, The Fighter
Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

Unless there’s some real sentiment going on for Douglas, who just beat a dangerous cancer, it should be Bale.  Bale’s performance is Acting! with a capital A.  You genuinely forget that he’s Christian Bale, the well know actor.  He’s not Batman.  He’s Dickie Eklund, he truly is, and when you see the small moment at the end of the film with the real Dickie Eklund, it reinforces just how genius, how meticulous and how precise Christian Bale is.  The only performance to touch his is John Hawkes in Winter’s Bone, and the HFP didn’t even nominate him. I love Rush, but he’s already gotten his award.

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees:

Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The Kings Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Most people are assuming the win will go to one of the ladies from The Fighter; the question is, which one?  And of course, when there’s that sort of confusion, someone else could slip in.  Who ever wins this becomes the front runner, and this is important here because the other races already have clear front runners and this one doesn’t; it also could easily be the slate of Oscar nominees, more so perhaps than any other category.   Now, the Hollywood Foreign Press loves anointing an It Girl; they’ll reward the lovely young thing with Portman, most likely, but they could also approve of Mila Kunis.  They could reward a veteran, like critical darlings Jacki Weaver and Melissa Leo.  Leo, for one, absolutely disappears into her role.  Or they could go with Amy Adams or Helena Bonham Carter, who stretch our perceptions of them (Bonham Carter by playing posh and sane, Adams by going tough and a bit dark).  Adams might be the best blend of It Girl and We Didn’t Expect That From Her.  This is definitely a category to watch, though.

Okay, what else?  Director ought to indicate Best Picture Drama (particularly since the 5 nominees directed those 5 movies); look for clues there to how the rest of the night will go.  Toy Story 3 should walk away with the animation prize, in an incredibly strong field; I know I’m a broken record, but I liked Despicable Me, How to Train Your Dragon and Tangled more than almost every live action feature I saw this year.  I can only think of two that even achieve at the same level.  I’d love to see “I See The Light” from Tangled win best song, but we’ll see how it fares against the two numbers from Burlesque.  I think it’d be delightful to see Romola Garai win for her work in Emma, but is anyone likely to stop Claire Danes award juggernaut roles as Temple Grandin?  I doubt it.  Will we get to see Grandin?  That’d add some extra spark to the entire proceedings.   That lady is a joy.  I thought Idris Elba was pretty hair raising in the title role of Luther, so I’m fascinated to see if he has an actual shot in his category (lead actor in a mini-series).  I think The Good Wife’s Julianna Margulies has a strong shot at lead actress in a drama; her ‘bad’ husband, Chris Noth will have a tougher time beating Glee‘s Chris Colfer, Modern Family‘s Eric Stonestreet,  and Hawaii Five-O‘s standout Scott Caan, but I’ll have my fingers crossed.

What about you?  What are you looking forward to the most?  Who do you think will win?

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4 comments on “Golden Globes 2011: Who Will Win?

  1. […] (My thoughts on who will actually win, now that the nominations are out, are here.) […]

  2. MMGF says:

    Actor – Comedy/Musical:
    What a ridiculous category. I’m not even sure I know what Casino Jack or Barney’s Version even are. You got it, though – Depp wins here, for Alice In Wonderland.

    Actress – Comedy/Musical:
    Boy is the pressure on for Bening here. If she loses here, with none of her likely Oscar competition in the race, it’s hard to see her getting anywhere near that Oscar, huh?

    Actor – Drama:
    Still haven’t seen King’s Speech, but it seems like everything’s Firth, all the time. That said, it’s a chance to award the outstanding 127 Hours (with a potential “It Guy.” It’s also a chance to put a surprise, critical favorite Gosling on the map and in the mix. With all the love for The Fighter, I do have a hard time seeing Wahlburg winning. It just feels like… not enough of a stretch? Which isn’t fair, but, well, perception isn’t always fair.

    Actress – Drama:
    You know, for all the Bening – Portman perception, thus implying that Portman should walk away with this one, I’ve read an awful lot lately about support rising for Lawrence. Who knows if there’s enough of a wave for that yet, or if it translates to the HFPA, but man would a Lawrence win here throw the pieces off the gameboard in this race!

    Supporting Actor:
    You know, I found The Fighter to be a little overrated (those sisters and drug friends are like caricatures and th,) but it’s hard not to be in awe of Bale in his role. I haven’t seen Wall Street or King’s Speech yet, and Renner was fantastic in another great Boston-centric film, The Town, but anything other than Bale here would be an insane shock.

    Supporting Actress:
    This is the race of the year, to me, and has been the entire time. It’ll be great to see what happens tonight, to give the slightest bit of edge to someone. I could easily see any one of these 5 women winning – and will be excited for whoever wins, no matter who it is. Some outstanding performances there.

    Best Picture, Musical/Comedy:
    Are any of these movies appropriate for this category other than Burlesque?? Not that I expect or want that to win. But, The Tourist is no comedy nor musical. I wouldn’t say Alice in Wonderland is, either. It’s weird how they count these colorful fantasy films as “comedies.” Bah. I haven’t seen Red or The Kids Are Alright, but Red seems to me to be more of an action film with a few laughs, and maybe I’m wrong, but The Kids Are Alright seemed to be to be a drama with some light, comic moments. So – basically I’m saying that this is just an annoying category! And while it seems to be a shoo-in for The Kids Are Alright, watch out for Alice in Wonderland!

    Best Picture, Drama:
    We’ll never know, but I wonder if this one isn’t wide open. The Social Network is sweeping the awards, but the continued buzz is that it’s too whippersnappery for Oscar. But does it match with the HFPA? And King’s Speech seems like the one ready to take the crown should The Social Network for any reason not be able to fulfill it’s reign. But the HFPA seems to run hot and cold with the costume period pieces, so who knows. They sometimes love their edgy films, and what’s more edgy and, really, somehow foreign feeling than Black Swan? I could see the whole psychological drama thing working big with them. But, er, Black Swan isn’t even the most psychologically dramatic film in the category. Could they go for Inception, the category blockbuster? And then The Fighter seems to be everyone’s little film that could. Could it here, too? Will the HFPA go for the gritty neighborhood feel? Or is it too, ah, foreign feeling for them? I can’t wait to find out….

    • E says:

      It’s true. I’m super interested to see what’s going on – am watching on delay, to see if Z comes over or not. (I was stunned that Dave Karger is predicted HBC for supporting, btw. Crazy! That really is the wacky and wonderful category of the year.)

      So, I agree with you that Wahlburg’s role is too self-effacing. That’s why he’s not the same level of contender as his co-stars. That’s kind of the point of the movie, really. But I think you’re right, The Fighter has a chance.

      Man, would I LOVE to see Lawrence win. So far that’s actually my favorite film of the bunch. (I did like The King’s Speech and The Fighter quite a bit, too.)

      I don’t know about Barney’s version – which I actually thought starred Dustin Hoffman – but Casino Jack is about Jack Abramoff. Wonder why there isn’t more press for that? We just rented The Kids Are All Right (I have 4 reviews to write, now) but it’s actually quite funny and well made. It’s a comedy like Terms of Endearment is a comedy. Well, not that sad, but still, in the James L. Brooks vein. Or so it struck me. At any rate I’m cool with it being in the category, unlike every thing else. (Well, Burlesque is certainly a musical, and Red is supposed to be an action/comedy, which is such a confusing sub-genre. The other two are right out, though.

  3. […] in all, most of my predictions proved to be on point, some of my favorites won, and others of my favorite (boo, tv) lost.  But […]

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