Golden Globe Predictions: 2011 Awards

E: Tomorrow, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will favor us with their picks for 2010’s best in film and television.  The Golden Globes are famously know as the best party of the year; it’s a smaller ballroom than the Oscars, less stiff and pretentious, and also with a lot more booze.  They have very particular tastes; they love celebrities, the bigger and more glamorous the better, yet they’ll occasionally pass up the chance to nominate one so they can anoint a new star.  They reward comedies, but they prefer them jet black, thank you very much.  And they’ll also pass up an actual musical in order to nominate a movie with a lot of music in it.  They have awards for leading actors in everything, but if you’re in a supporting role, this is not your party.  But best of all, they’re excellent indicators of what Oscar might nominate.  Actors and movies that sweep awards?  They gain the real momentum here.

Without further ado, my guesses:

Best Picture, Drama:

Black Swan
Inception
The Fighter
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

Alternates:
127 Hours, True Grit, Winter’s Bone, The Hereafter, The Town, Secretariat, Conviction, Rabbit Hole, Get Low

They often have more than 5, and I think this could be one of those years.  I’m not 100% certain of these picks, of course, but this seems like the pool to me.  I actually feel fairly confident about this group.  Boxing and family drama The Fighter might be the most shaky, but I have a feeling about it.

What’s this with Get Low, however?  I feel like I know nothing at all about that movie, and suddenly everyone thinks it’s in play.

Best Picture, Comedy or Musical:

The Kids Are All Right
Country Strong
Eat Pray Love
How Do You Know
Toy Story 3

Alternates:
I Love You Phillip Morris, Easy A, Burlesque, Red, How To Train Your Dragon, Casino Jack, Alice in Wonderland

I love that it exists, but predicting this category is a pain in the butt.  It’s so hard to tell what they might consider a comedy, even!   I don’t remotely get how AiW is being considered in this category but the scuttlebutt claims just that.

Best Actor, Drama:

Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Javier Bardem, Biutiful

Alternates:
Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Aaron Eckhart, Rabbit Hole; Leonardo Di Caprio, Inception or Shutter Island; and Robert Duvall, Get Low

I’m going to have fits over Ryan Gosling.  I can’t decide!  I heard all sorts of stuff about Bardem earlier in the season. If he or Franco gets left off the list, it’s not a fatal blow, but it’s really really bad news for their Oscar chances.

Best Actor, Comedy or Musical

Johnny Depp, Alice in Wonderland
Robert Downey, Jr., Due Date
Jake Gyllenhaal, Love And Other Drugs
Ewan McGregor, I Love You Phillip Morris
Kevin Spacey, Casino Jack

Alternates:
Paul Rudd, How Do You Know; Jim Carrey, ILYPM; John C. Reilly, Cyrus; Bruce Willis, Red

I have absolutely no clue in this category.  None.  Is Mark Ruffalo lead or supporting?  They could mess with that here.  Also, Phillip Morris seems like a Hollywood Foreign Press kind of movie, but would they go with Carrey (who used to be their darling) or McGregor, or both?  None of these men have a snowball’s chance in Hell’s Kitchen of getting an Oscar nomination, so it’s all just fun from here.

Supporting Actor:

Christian Bale, The Fighter
Matt Damon, True Grit

Andrew Garfield OR Arnie Hammer OR Justin Timberlake, The Social Network
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

Alternates:
Jeremy Renner, The Town; Bill Murray, Get Low; Sam Rockwell, C;, Sean Penn, Fair Game; Michael Douglas, Wall Street; Stanley Tucci, Burlesque

They could easily go for two TSN boys which might knock out Ruffalo, (and what if they consider R a lead)?  It’ll be fascinating to see just how much the HFP  like this movie.  It’s beginning to steam roll through the critics awards, even though most Oscar Watchers consider The King’s Speech the frontrunner for the big award.  There’s a difference between the critics and Oscar, though, and this might be the category that helps us determine how wide that gulf is.  I feel like Damon is too big a star for them to pass up (and we know they like both him and the Coen brothers), and Bale and Rush seem like locks.  Bale and Rush certainly have Oscar written all over them, and all the other men listed here are definitely in play.

Best Actress, Drama

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Leslie Manville, Another Year
Natalie Portman, The Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Alternates:
Hailee Steinfield, True Grit; Sally Hawkins Made in Dagenham (unless this is a comedy?  I don’t feel like it is, but I’ve seen it listed as such), Hilary Swank, Conviction; Tilda Swinton, I Am Love; Naomi Watts, ;, Noomi Rapace, The Girl With…

If Williams can’t make this list, she’s probably out of the race; not absolutely, but it would be tough to come back from, especially considering that Annette Bening, at least, will swoop over from Comedy/Musical and take one of the five slots at Oscar time.   She might not even be the only one. Apparently Steinfeld is generally being campaigned as Supporting Actress – where she has a solid shot – but the HFPA ruled her a lead.   I don’t know that she’s got much of a shot even here at the GGs, where half her competition is over in comedy, let alone for Oscar. I feel like she’d definitely get a supporting nod; she’s supposed to be fantastic, and I’ve heard it considered a borderline, a beefy supporting role.  Anyway,  this is tricky.  I wonder if it messes with her Oscar chances if she gets a nod here in the “wrong” category?  I think Portman and Kidman are solid; Manville and Lawrence have been showered with critical acclaim and buzzed about enormously this year.  So we’ll see if they can step into the Comedy-created vacuum and make a go of it.  I feel like Lawrence’s role might have more momentum, but we’ll see…

Best Actress, Comedy or Musical:

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs or Julia Roberts Eat Pray Love
Julianne Moore, TKAAR
Gwyneth Paltrow, Country Strong
Reese Witherspoon, How Do You Know

Alternates:
Helen Mirren, Red; Emma Stone, Easy A; or, highly unlikely, Christina Aguilera, Burlesque

Unlike the men’s group, many of these women are in play for Oscar this year.  That’s one of those moments were the Globes are tricky, because they don’t help clarify who the final five will be.  Either way, the only way both Bening and Moore don’t show up here is if they count Moore as supporting.  A snub there would be an enormous shock.  I kind of feel like they’d love to have Mirren in here, but do they pass up Witherspoon or Roberts for her?  They love Roberts, particularly; that’s just the kind of glamor and star wattage the HFP value.  If Paltrow can’t score a nod here, you have to feel like her Oscar bid is totally dead; ditto for Witherspoon.
Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The Kings Speech
Marion Cotillard, Inception
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Alternates:
Sissy Spacek, Get Low; Barbara Hershey, The Black Swan; Winona Ryder, TBS; Mila Kunis, TBS; Blake Lively, The Town; Rooney Mara, The Social Network; Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham.

I think here’s where we find out if Jacki Weaver really is in play.  If she ends up on this list, she’s got a fantastic shot at an Oscar nomination.  If she doesn’t, she may fade back into obscurity.  The Globes like to be on top of things, on the cutting edge with “new” talent and unknowns, but they also love them some glamorous celebrities.  I have a strong feeling about Barbara Hershey and could see her getting that slot if it doesn’t go to Jacki.  Cotillard seems like an HFP favorite (and there really are certain people they fall over themselves to reward), and Bonham Carter and Leo seems like the strongest candidates in general.  The HFP could teach us if that’s true or not, even though they’re not quite as good at anticipating the supporting nominees as the lead ones.

And those are my thoughts.  What about yours?

(My thoughts on who will actually win, now that the nominations are out, are here.)

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